McIlroy, Rory vs Young, Cameron prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Young, Cameron 20 - McIlroy, Rory 3. McIlroy, Rory is favored with a 77.0% win probability. The spread is 0.03.
Young, Cameron
+2.08
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
McIlroy, Rory
+2.10
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Young, CameronMcIlroy, Rory
-133
Best Odds
+35.0%
Edge
2.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McIlroy, Rory
0310
Young, Cameron
132027
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
77°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — McIlroy, Rory
Strokes Gained
+2.10/round
Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+2.541 SG adj
Expected Finish
3th / 72
Matchup Analysis
McIlroy, Rory
+2.10 SG
EF 3th
Skill Gap
+0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Young, Cameron
+2.08 SG
EF 20th · Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
77.0%
Books Say
57.1%
Edge
+35.0%
McIlroy, Rory vs Young, Cameron: Model gives McIlroy, Rory 77.0% win probability vs 57.1% implied (+35.0% edge). Expected finish: 3.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McIlroy, Rory 77.0%
+35.0 pts
Spread
+0.0
+35.0 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →