McNealy, Maverick vs Kim, Si Woo prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kim, Si Woo 80 - McNealy, Maverick 76. McNealy, Maverick is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The spread is -0.09.
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
McNealy, Maverick
+1.25
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kim, Si WooMcNealy, Maverick
+105
Best Odds
+10.3%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McNealy, Maverick
697683
Kim, Si Woo
738087
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — McNealy, Maverick
Strokes Gained
+1.25/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.359 SG adj
Expected Finish
76th / 156
Matchup Analysis
McNealy, Maverick
+1.25 SG
EF 76th
Skill Gap
-0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32 SG
EF 80th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.8%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+10.3%
McNealy, Maverick vs Kim, Si Woo: Model gives McNealy, Maverick 53.8% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+10.3% edge). Expected finish: 76.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McNealy, Maverick 53.8%
+10.3 pts
Spread
-0.1
+10.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →