McNealy, Maverick vs Niemann, Joaquin prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Niemann, Joaquin 98 - McNealy, Maverick 76. McNealy, Maverick is favored with a 63.8% win probability. The spread is 0.6.
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.64
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
McNealy, Maverick
+1.25
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Niemann, JoaquinMcNealy, Maverick
-124
Best Odds
+15.3%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McNealy, Maverick
697683
Niemann, Joaquin
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — McNealy, Maverick
Strokes Gained
+1.25/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.359 SG adj
Expected Finish
76th / 156
Matchup Analysis
McNealy, Maverick
+1.25 SG
EF 76th
Skill Gap
+0.60 SG/round
meaningful edge for McNealy, Maverick
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.64 SG
EF 98th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.8%
Books Say
55.4%
Edge
+15.3%
McNealy, Maverick vs Niemann, Joaquin: Model gives McNealy, Maverick 63.8% win probability vs 55.4% implied (+15.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.60 SG/round. Expected finish: 76.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McNealy, Maverick 63.8%
+15.3 pts
Spread
+0.6
+15.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →