McNealy, Maverick vs Spieth, Jordan prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spieth, Jordan 86 - McNealy, Maverick 76. McNealy, Maverick is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The spread is 0.29.
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
McNealy, Maverick
+1.25
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spieth, JordanMcNealy, Maverick
-110
Best Odds
+11.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McNealy, Maverick
697683
Spieth, Jordan
798693
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — McNealy, Maverick
Strokes Gained
+1.25/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.359 SG adj
Expected Finish
76th / 156
Matchup Analysis
McNealy, Maverick
+1.25 SG
EF 76th
Skill Gap
+0.29 SG/round
tight edge for McNealy, Maverick
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95 SG
EF 86th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.4%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+11.5%
McNealy, Maverick vs Spieth, Jordan: Model gives McNealy, Maverick 58.4% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+11.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.29 SG/round. Expected finish: 76.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McNealy, Maverick 58.4%
+11.5 pts
Spread
+0.3
+11.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →