Mitchell, Keith vs Day, Jason prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Day, Jason 46 - Mitchell, Keith 94. Mitchell, Keith is favored with a 63.9% win probability. The spread is 0.14.
Day, Jason
+0.64
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Mitchell, Keith
+0.79
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Day, JasonMitchell, Keith
-114
Best Odds
+20.0%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mitchell, Keith
8794101
Day, Jason
394653
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Mitchell, Keith
Strokes Gained
+0.79/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.051 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Mitchell, Keith
+0.79 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Mitchell, Keith
Day, Jason
+0.64 SG
EF 46th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.9%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+20.0%
Mitchell, Keith vs Day, Jason: Model gives Mitchell, Keith 63.9% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+20.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mitchell, Keith 63.9%
+20.0 pts
Spread
+0.1
+20.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →