Mitchell, Keith vs Harman, Brian prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Harman, Brian 36 - Mitchell, Keith 94. Mitchell, Keith is favored with a 61.4% win probability. The spread is 0.18.
Harman, Brian
+0.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Mitchell, Keith
+0.79
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Harman, BrianMitchell, Keith
-125
Best Odds
+10.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mitchell, Keith
8794101
Harman, Brian
293643
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Mitchell, Keith
Strokes Gained
+0.79/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.051 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Mitchell, Keith
+0.79 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
+0.18 SG/round
tight edge for Mitchell, Keith
Harman, Brian
+0.66 SG
EF 36th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.4%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+10.5%
Mitchell, Keith vs Harman, Brian: Model gives Mitchell, Keith 61.4% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+10.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mitchell, Keith 61.4%
+10.5 pts
Spread
+0.2
+10.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →