Mitchell, Keith vs Koepka, Brooks prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Koepka, Brooks 72 - Mitchell, Keith 70. Mitchell, Keith is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The spread is 0.1.
Koepka, Brooks
+0.51
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Mitchell, Keith
+0.61
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Koepka, BrooksMitchell, Keith
+110
Best Odds
+16.0%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mitchell, Keith
637077
Koepka, Brooks
657279
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Mitchell, Keith
Strokes Gained
+0.61/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.259 SG adj
Expected Finish
70th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Mitchell, Keith
+0.61 SG
EF 70th
Skill Gap
+0.10 SG/round
tight edge for Mitchell, Keith
Koepka, Brooks
+0.51 SG
EF 72th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.2%
Books Say
47.6%
Edge
+16.0%
Mitchell, Keith vs Koepka, Brooks: Model gives Mitchell, Keith 55.2% win probability vs 47.6% implied (+16.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.10 SG/round. Expected finish: 70.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mitchell, Keith 55.2%
+16.0 pts
Spread
+0.1
+16.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →