Morikawa, Collin vs Cantlay, Patrick prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cantlay, Patrick 79 - Morikawa, Collin 61. Morikawa, Collin is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The spread is -0.04.
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Morikawa, Collin
+1.46
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cantlay, PatrickMorikawa, Collin
+111
Best Odds
+19.8%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Morikawa, Collin
546168
Cantlay, Patrick
727986
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Morikawa, Collin
Strokes Gained
+1.46/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.585 SG adj
Expected Finish
61th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Morikawa, Collin
+1.46 SG
EF 61th
Skill Gap
-0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50 SG
EF 79th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.8%
Books Say
47.4%
Edge
+19.8%
Morikawa, Collin vs Cantlay, Patrick: Model gives Morikawa, Collin 56.8% win probability vs 47.4% implied (+19.8% edge). Expected finish: 61.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Morikawa, Collin 56.8%
+19.8 pts
Spread
-0.0
+19.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →