Morikawa, Collin vs Hatton, Tyrrell prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hatton, Tyrrell 0 - Morikawa, Collin 69. Morikawa, Collin is favored with a 60.2% win probability. The spread is 0.39.
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Morikawa, Collin
+1.40
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hatton, TyrrellMorikawa, Collin
-110
Best Odds
+17.5%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Morikawa, Collin
Strokes Gained
+1.40/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.269 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Morikawa, Collin
+1.40 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
+0.39 SG/round
tight edge for Morikawa, Collin
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.2%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+17.5%
Morikawa, Collin vs Hatton, Tyrrell: Model gives Morikawa, Collin 60.2% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+15.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.39 SG/round. Expected finish: 69. AI: strong recent form; weather/conditions favorable.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Morikawa, Collin 60.2%
+17.5 pts
Spread
+0.4
+17.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →