Morikawa, Collin vs Koepka, Brooks prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Koepka, Brooks 83 - Morikawa, Collin 61. Morikawa, Collin is favored with a 61.1% win probability. The spread is 0.99.
Koepka, Brooks
+0.48
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Morikawa, Collin
+1.46
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Koepka, BrooksMorikawa, Collin
-117
Best Odds
+13.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Morikawa, Collin
546168
Koepka, Brooks
768390
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Morikawa, Collin
Strokes Gained
+1.46/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.585 SG adj
Expected Finish
61th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Morikawa, Collin
+1.46 SG
EF 61th
Skill Gap
+0.99 SG/round
large edge for Morikawa, Collin
Koepka, Brooks
+0.48 SG
EF 83th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.1%
Books Say
53.9%
Edge
+13.3%
Morikawa, Collin vs Koepka, Brooks: Model gives Morikawa, Collin 61.1% win probability vs 53.9% implied (+13.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.99 SG/round. Expected finish: 61.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Morikawa, Collin 61.1%
+13.3 pts
Spread
+1.0
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →