Mouw, William vs Moore, Taylor prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Moore, Taylor 89 - Mouw, William 87. Mouw, William is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The spread is 0.09.
Moore, Taylor
+0.08
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Mouw, William
+0.17
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Moore, TaylorMouw, William
-112
Best Odds
+11.4%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mouw, William
808794
Moore, Taylor
828996
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Mouw, William
Strokes Gained
+0.17/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.093 SG adj
Expected Finish
87th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Mouw, William
+0.17 SG
EF 87th
Skill Gap
+0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Moore, Taylor
+0.08 SG
EF 89th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.9%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+11.4%
Mouw, William vs Moore, Taylor: Model gives Mouw, William 58.9% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+11.4% edge). Expected finish: 87.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mouw, William 58.9%
+11.4 pts
Spread
+0.1
+11.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →