Mouw, William vs Moore, Taylor prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Moore, Taylor 92 - Mouw, William 87. Mouw, William is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The spread is 0.09.
Moore, Taylor
+0.24
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Mouw, William
+0.17
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Moore, TaylorMouw, William
-112
Best Odds
+11.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mouw, William
808794
Moore, Taylor
859299
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Mouw, William
Strokes Gained
+0.17/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.093 SG adj
Expected Finish
87th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Mouw, William
+0.17 SG
EF 87th
Skill Gap
+0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Moore, Taylor
+0.24 SG
EF 92th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.8%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+11.2%
Mouw, William vs Moore, Taylor: Model gives Mouw, William 58.8% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+11.2% edge). Expected finish: 87.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Mouw has minimal course fit (+0.093 SG) and skill edge (+0.087 SG). Expected finishes are nearly tied (88 vs 87), and 9.4% edge on -114 is marginal noise. Skip unless odds drift.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Mouw +0.165 (modest skill)
- Course fit: Mouw +0.093 SG (minimal advantage)
- Expected finish: Mouw 88 vs Moore 87+ (virtually identical)
- Odds: -114 (implied 53.3% vs model 58.3% = +5.0% edge)
- Skill differential: +0.087 (barely in Mouw's favor)
Risk Factors
- Expected finishes are nearly identical (88 vs 87); this is a variance play
- Minimal skill advantage (+0.087 SG); Mouw is not clearly better
- Course fit edge is marginal (+0.093 SG)
MARGINAL EDGEIDENTICAL EFMINIMAL FACTORSSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mouw, William 58.8%
+11.2 pts
Spread
+0.1
+11.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →