Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus vs Yu, Kevin prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Yu, Kevin 98 - Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 87. Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The spread is 0.1.
Yu, Kevin
-0.02
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
+0.11
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Yu, KevinNeergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
-121
Best Odds
+7.4%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
808794
Yu, Kevin
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
Strokes Gained
+0.11/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.178 SG adj
Expected Finish
87th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
+0.11 SG
EF 87th
Skill Gap
+0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Yu, Kevin
-0.02 SG
EF 98th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.8%
Books Say
54.8%
Edge
+7.4%
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus vs Yu, Kevin: Model gives Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 58.8% win probability vs 54.8% implied (+7.4% edge). Expected finish: 87.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Neergaard has modest skill (+0.112 SG total) and course fit (+0.178 SG). Expected finishes are nearly identical (86 vs 86), and 6.2% edge on -122 is thin and fairly priced. Skip.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Neergaard +0.112 (minimal skill) vs Yu unknown
- Course fit: Neergaard +0.178 (modest advantage)
- Expected finish: Neergaard 86 vs Yu likely similar
- Odds: -122 (implied 55.0% vs model 58.4% = +3.4% edge)
- Skill differential: +0.095 (marginal)
Risk Factors
- Expected finishes are tied (~86), suggesting high variance
- Neergaard has minimal base skill (+0.112 SG), mostly driven by course fit
- 6.2% edge is thin and fairly priced at -122
MARGINAL EDGEMINIMAL BASE SKILLIDENTICAL EFSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 58.8%
+7.4 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →