Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus vs Yu, Kevin prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Yu, Kevin 99 - Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 86. Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The spread is 0.1.
Yu, Kevin
-0.02
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
+0.11
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Yu, KevinNeergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
-121
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
798693
Yu, Kevin
9299106
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
Strokes Gained
+0.11/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.178 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
+0.11 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
+0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Yu, Kevin
-0.02 SG
EF 99th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.9%
Books Say
54.8%
Edge
+7.6%
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus vs Yu, Kevin: Model gives Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 58.9% win probability vs 54.8% implied (+7.6% edge). Expected finish: 86.
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL +0YELLOW ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Model 58.79% vs market 54.75% creates +7.4% edge, but +0.095 skill advantage, +0.178 course fit, and negative odds (-121) on mid-field matchup (EF 86.6 both) suggest uncertain value.
Key Factors
- Skill advantage: +0.095 (Neergaard-Petersen slight edge)
- Course fit: +0.178 (Neergaard-Petersen advantage)
- SG total: +0.112 (Neergaard-Petersen advantage)
- EF: 86.6 both (parity)
- Edge: +7.4% at -121 Pinnacle (expensive)
Risk Factors
- All advantages are modest (+0.095 skill, +0.178 fit, +0.112 SG)
- EF parity (86.6 both) suggests coin-flip
- Negative odds (-121) expensive for modest edges
MODEST EDGEEF PARITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 58.9%
+7.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →