Niemann, Joaquin vs Spieth, Jordan prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spieth, Jordan 86 - Niemann, Joaquin 98. Niemann, Joaquin is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The spread is -0.31.
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.64
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spieth, JordanNiemann, Joaquin
+115
Best Odds
+12.8%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Niemann, Joaquin
9198105
Spieth, Jordan
798693
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Niemann, Joaquin
Strokes Gained
+0.64/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.232 SG adj
Expected Finish
98th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.64 SG
EF 98th
Skill Gap
-0.31 SG/round
tight edge for Spieth, Jordan
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95 SG
EF 86th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
52.5%
Books Say
46.5%
Edge
+12.8%
Niemann, Joaquin vs Spieth, Jordan: Model gives Niemann, Joaquin 52.5% win probability vs 46.5% implied (+12.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.31 SG/round. Expected finish: 98.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Niemann, Joaquin 52.5%
+12.8 pts
Spread
-0.3
+12.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →