Niemann, Joaquin vs Spieth, Jordan prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spieth, Jordan 37 - Niemann, Joaquin 86. Niemann, Joaquin is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The spread is -0.17.
Spieth, Jordan
+0.91
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spieth, JordanNiemann, Joaquin
+103
Best Odds
+11.8%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Niemann, Joaquin
798693
Spieth, Jordan
303744
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Niemann, Joaquin
Strokes Gained
+0.81/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.305 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.81 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
-0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Spieth, Jordan
Spieth, Jordan
+0.91 SG
EF 37th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.0%
Books Say
49.3%
Edge
+11.8%
Niemann, Joaquin vs Spieth, Jordan: Model gives Niemann, Joaquin 55.1% win probability vs 49.3% implied (+11.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 86.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Niemann, Joaquin 55.0%
+11.8 pts
Spread
-0.2
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →