Noren, Alex vs Smalley, Alex prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 11 - Noren, Alex 10. Noren, Alex is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The spread is 0.28.
Smalley, Alex
+0.89
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Noren, Alex
+1.18
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexNoren, Alex
+115
Best Odds
+14.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Noren, Alex
31017
Smalley, Alex
41118
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
77°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Noren, Alex
Strokes Gained
+1.18/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
poor
-0.401 SG adj
Expected Finish
10th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Noren, Alex
+1.18 SG
EF 10th
Skill Gap
+0.28 SG/round
tight edge for Noren, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+0.89 SG
EF 11th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.5%
Books Say
46.5%
Edge
+14.9%
Noren, Alex vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Noren, Alex 53.5% win probability vs 46.5% implied (+14.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.27 SG/round. Expected finish: 10.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Noren, Alex 53.5%
+14.9 pts
Spread
+0.3
+14.9 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →