Novak, Andrew vs Harman, Brian prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Harman, Brian 36 - Novak, Andrew 102. Novak, Andrew is favored with a 57.7% win probability. The spread is -0.17.
Harman, Brian
+0.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Novak, Andrew
+0.44
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Harman, BrianNovak, Andrew
+104
Best Odds
+17.7%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Novak, Andrew
95102109
Harman, Brian
293643
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Novak, Andrew
Strokes Gained
+0.44/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.142 SG adj
Expected Finish
102th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Novak, Andrew
+0.44 SG
EF 102th
Skill Gap
-0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Harman, Brian
Harman, Brian
+0.66 SG
EF 36th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.7%
Books Say
49.0%
Edge
+17.7%
Novak, Andrew vs Harman, Brian: Model gives Novak, Andrew 57.7% win probability vs 49.0% implied (+17.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.17 SG/round. Expected finish: 102.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Novak, Andrew 57.7%
+17.7 pts
Spread
-0.2
+17.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →