Novak, Andrew vs Poston, J.T. prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Poston, J.T. 104 - Novak, Andrew 108. Novak, Andrew is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The spread is -0.18.
Poston, J.T.
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Novak, Andrew
+0.36
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Poston, J.T.Novak, Andrew
-105
Best Odds
+13.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Novak, Andrew
101108115
Poston, J.T.
97104111
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Novak, Andrew
Strokes Gained
+0.36/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.086 SG adj
Expected Finish
108th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Novak, Andrew
+0.36 SG
EF 108th
Skill Gap
-0.18 SG/round
tight edge for Poston, J.T.
Poston, J.T.
+0.54 SG
EF 104th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.4%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+13.9%
Novak, Andrew vs Poston, J.T.: Model gives Novak, Andrew 58.4% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+13.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 108.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Novak, Andrew 58.4%
+13.9 pts
Spread
-0.2
+13.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →