Parry, John vs Kirk, Chris prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kirk, Chris 88 - Parry, John 86. Parry, John is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The spread is -0.04.
Kirk, Chris
+0.39
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Parry, John
+0.35
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kirk, ChrisParry, John
-125
Best Odds
+5.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Parry, John
798693
Kirk, Chris
818895
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Parry, John
Strokes Gained
+0.35/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.047 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Parry, John
+0.35 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
-0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Kirk, Chris
+0.39 SG
EF 88th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.8%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+5.9%
Parry, John vs Kirk, Chris: Model gives Parry, John 58.8% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+5.9% edge). Expected finish: 86.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Parry, John 58.8%
+5.9 pts
Spread
-0.0
+5.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →