Pendrith, Taylor vs Berger, Daniel prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Berger, Daniel 106 - Pendrith, Taylor 107. Pendrith, Taylor is favored with a 60.8% win probability. The spread is -0.26.
Berger, Daniel
+0.60
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Pendrith, Taylor
+0.34
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Berger, DanielPendrith, Taylor
-110
Best Odds
+16.0%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Pendrith, Taylor
100107114
Berger, Daniel
99106113
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Pendrith, Taylor
Strokes Gained
+0.34/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.209 SG adj
Expected Finish
107th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Pendrith, Taylor
+0.34 SG
EF 107th
Skill Gap
-0.26 SG/round
tight edge for Berger, Daniel
Berger, Daniel
+0.60 SG
EF 106th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.8%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+16.0%
Pendrith, Taylor vs Berger, Daniel: Model gives Pendrith, Taylor 60.8% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+16.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.26 SG/round. Expected finish: 107.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pendrith, Taylor 60.8%
+16.0 pts
Spread
-0.3
+16.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →