Pendrith, Taylor vs Mitchell, Keith prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mitchell, Keith 71 - Pendrith, Taylor 61. Pendrith, Taylor is favored with a 57.5% win probability. The spread is -0.2.
Mitchell, Keith
+0.61
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Pendrith, Taylor
+0.42
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Mitchell, KeithPendrith, Taylor
-104
Best Odds
+12.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Pendrith, Taylor
546168
Mitchell, Keith
647178
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Pendrith, Taylor
Strokes Gained
+0.42/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.753 SG adj
Expected Finish
61th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Pendrith, Taylor
+0.42 SG
EF 61th
Skill Gap
-0.20 SG/round
tight edge for Mitchell, Keith
Mitchell, Keith
+0.61 SG
EF 71th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.5%
Books Say
51.0%
Edge
+12.8%
Pendrith, Taylor vs Mitchell, Keith: Model gives Pendrith, Taylor 57.5% win probability vs 51.0% implied (+12.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.20 SG/round. Expected finish: 61.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pendrith, Taylor 57.5%
+12.8 pts
Spread
-0.2
+12.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →