Poston, J.T. vs Smalley, Alex prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 41 - Poston, J.T. 93. Poston, J.T. is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The spread is -0.12.
Smalley, Alex
+0.88
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Poston, J.T.
+0.91
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexPoston, J.T.
-115
Best Odds
+8.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Poston, J.T.
8693100
Smalley, Alex
344148
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Poston, J.T.
Strokes Gained
+0.91/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.015 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Poston, J.T.
+0.91 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+0.88 SG
EF 41th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.9%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+8.2%
Poston, J.T. vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Poston, J.T. 57.9% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+8.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 93.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Poston, J.T. 57.9%
+8.2 pts
Spread
-0.1
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →