PGA Tour Golf

Potgieter, Aldrich vs Finau, Tony Prediction

June 11, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Potgieter, Aldrich vs Finau, Tony prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Finau, Tony 0 - Potgieter, Aldrich 94. Potgieter, Aldrich is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The spread is -0.26.

Finau, Tony
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Potgieter, Aldrich
+0.06
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
48.8%
51.2%
Finau, TonyPotgieter, Aldrich
+120
Best Odds
+12.7%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
FINALFinau, Tony (T6) def Potgieter, Aldrich (T17)

Tournament Context

Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players

Player Profile — Potgieter, Aldrich

Strokes Gained
+0.06/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.152 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 147

Matchup Analysis

Potgieter, Aldrich
+0.06 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
-0.26 SG/round
tight edge for Finau, Tony
Finau, Tony
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
51.2%
Books Say
45.5%
Edge
+12.7%

Potgieter, Aldrich vs Finau, Tony: Model gives Potgieter, Aldrich 51.2% win probability vs 45.5% implied (+12.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.26 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Potgieter, Aldrich 51.2%
+12.7 pts
Spread
-0.3
+12.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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