Puig, David vs Griffin, Ben prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Griffin, Ben 90 - Puig, David 93. Puig, David is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The spread is -0.2.
Griffin, Ben
+1.02
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Puig, David
+0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Griffin, BenPuig, David
-102
Best Odds
+9.3%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Puig, David
8693100
Griffin, Ben
839097
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Puig, David
Strokes Gained
+0.81/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.224 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Puig, David
+0.81 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.20 SG/round
tight edge for Griffin, Ben
Griffin, Ben
+1.02 SG
EF 90th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.2%
Books Say
50.5%
Edge
+9.3%
Puig, David vs Griffin, Ben: Model gives Puig, David 55.2% win probability vs 50.5% implied (+9.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.20 SG/round. Expected finish: 93.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Puig, David 55.2%
+9.3 pts
Spread
-0.2
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →