Rai, Aaron vs Cauley, Bud prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cauley, Bud 83 - Rai, Aaron 63. Rai, Aaron is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The spread is 0.27.
Cauley, Bud
+1.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Rai, Aaron
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cauley, BudRai, Aaron
-125
Best Odds
+5.5%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rai, Aaron
566370
Cauley, Bud
768390
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Rai, Aaron
Strokes Gained
+1.03/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.304 SG adj
Expected Finish
63th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Rai, Aaron
+1.03 SG
EF 63th
Skill Gap
+0.27 SG/round
tight edge for Rai, Aaron
Cauley, Bud
+1.00 SG
EF 83th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.6%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+5.5%
Rai, Aaron vs Cauley, Bud: Model gives Rai, Aaron 58.6% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+5.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.27 SG/round. Expected finish: 63.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rai, Aaron 58.6%
+5.5 pts
Spread
+0.3
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →