Rai, Aaron vs Harman, Brian prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Harman, Brian 96 - Rai, Aaron 102. Rai, Aaron is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The spread is 0.04.
Harman, Brian
+0.55
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Rai, Aaron
+0.59
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Harman, BrianRai, Aaron
-111
Best Odds
+6.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rai, Aaron
95102109
Harman, Brian
8996103
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Rai, Aaron
Strokes Gained
+0.59/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.107 SG adj
Expected Finish
102th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Rai, Aaron
+0.59 SG
EF 102th
Skill Gap
+0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Harman, Brian
+0.55 SG
EF 96th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.1%
Books Say
52.6%
Edge
+6.6%
Rai, Aaron vs Harman, Brian: Model gives Rai, Aaron 56.1% win probability vs 52.6% implied (+6.6% edge). Expected finish: 102.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rai, Aaron 56.1%
+6.6 pts
Spread
+0.0
+6.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →