Rai, Aaron vs Mitchell, Keith prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mitchell, Keith 95 - Rai, Aaron 67. Rai, Aaron is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The spread is 0.28.
Mitchell, Keith
+0.79
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Rai, Aaron
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Mitchell, KeithRai, Aaron
-130
Best Odds
+10.4%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rai, Aaron
606774
Mitchell, Keith
8895102
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Rai, Aaron
Strokes Gained
+1.03/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.166 SG adj
Expected Finish
67th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Rai, Aaron
+1.03 SG
EF 67th
Skill Gap
+0.28 SG/round
tight edge for Rai, Aaron
Mitchell, Keith
+0.79 SG
EF 95th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.6%
Books Say
56.5%
Edge
+10.4%
Rai, Aaron vs Mitchell, Keith: Model gives Rai, Aaron 61.6% win probability vs 56.5% implied (+8.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.28 SG/round. Expected finish: 67. AI: strong recent form.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rai, Aaron 61.6%
+10.4 pts
Spread
+0.3
+10.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →