Rai, Aaron vs Niemann, Joaquin prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Niemann, Joaquin 0 - Rai, Aaron 82. Rai, Aaron is favored with a 59.3% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Rai, Aaron
+0.96
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Niemann, JoaquinRai, Aaron
-120
Best Odds
+8.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Rai, Aaron
Strokes Gained
+0.96/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.307 SG adj
Expected Finish
82th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Rai, Aaron
+0.96 SG
EF 82th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Rai, Aaron
Niemann, Joaquin
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.3%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+8.8%
Rai, Aaron vs Niemann, Joaquin: Model gives Rai, Aaron 59.3% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+8.8% edge). Skill advantage: +0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 82.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rai, Aaron 59.3%
+8.8 pts
Spread
+0.1
+8.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →