Rai, Aaron vs Noren, Alex prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Noren, Alex 87 - Rai, Aaron 66. Rai, Aaron is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The spread is -0.34.
Noren, Alex
+1.16
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Rai, Aaron
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Noren, AlexRai, Aaron
-114
Best Odds
+5.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rai, Aaron
596673
Noren, Alex
808794
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Rai, Aaron
Strokes Gained
+1.03/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.166 SG adj
Expected Finish
66th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Rai, Aaron
+1.03 SG
EF 66th
Skill Gap
-0.34 SG/round
tight edge for Noren, Alex
Noren, Alex
+1.16 SG
EF 87th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.0%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+5.2%
Rai, Aaron vs Noren, Alex: Model gives Rai, Aaron 56.0% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+5.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.34 SG/round. Expected finish: 66.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rai, Aaron 56.0%
+5.2 pts
Spread
-0.3
+5.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →