Rai, Aaron vs Scott, Adam prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Scott, Adam 38 - Rai, Aaron 82. Rai, Aaron is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The spread is -0.31.
Scott, Adam
+1.12
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Rai, Aaron
+0.96
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Scott, AdamRai, Aaron
-115
Best Odds
+7.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rai, Aaron
758289
Scott, Adam
313845
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Rai, Aaron
Strokes Gained
+0.96/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.307 SG adj
Expected Finish
82th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Rai, Aaron
+0.96 SG
EF 82th
Skill Gap
-0.31 SG/round
tight edge for Scott, Adam
Scott, Adam
+1.12 SG
EF 38th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.3%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+7.1%
Rai, Aaron vs Scott, Adam: Model gives Rai, Aaron 57.3% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+7.1% edge). Skill advantage: -0.31 SG/round. Expected finish: 82.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rai, Aaron 57.3%
+7.1 pts
Spread
-0.3
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →