Rai, Aaron vs Smalley, Alex prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 40 - Rai, Aaron 81. Rai, Aaron is favored with a 62.5% win probability. The spread is -0.07.
Smalley, Alex
+0.88
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Rai, Aaron
+0.96
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexRai, Aaron
-143
Best Odds
+6.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rai, Aaron
748188
Smalley, Alex
334047
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Rai, Aaron
Strokes Gained
+0.96/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.307 SG adj
Expected Finish
81th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Rai, Aaron
+0.96 SG
EF 81th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Smalley, Alex
+0.88 SG
EF 40th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.5%
Books Say
58.9%
Edge
+6.1%
Rai, Aaron vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Rai, Aaron 62.5% win probability vs 58.8% implied (+6.1% edge). Expected finish: 81.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rai, Aaron 62.5%
+6.1 pts
Spread
-0.1
+6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →