Reed, Patrick vs Rose, Justin prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rose, Justin 34 - Reed, Patrick 75. Reed, Patrick is favored with a 60.4% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Rose, Justin
+1.20
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Reed, Patrick
+1.10
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rose, JustinReed, Patrick
-115
Best Odds
+14.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Reed, Patrick
687582
Rose, Justin
273441
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Reed, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+1.10/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.354 SG adj
Expected Finish
75th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Reed, Patrick
+1.10 SG
EF 75th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Rose, Justin
+1.20 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.4%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+14.9%
Reed, Patrick vs Rose, Justin: Model gives Reed, Patrick 60.4% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+12.9% edge). Expected finish: 75. AI: course specialist.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Reed, Patrick 60.4%
+14.9 pts
Spread
-0.0
+14.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →