Reed, Patrick vs Spieth, Jordan prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spieth, Jordan 87 - Reed, Patrick 111. Reed, Patrick is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The spread is 0.03.
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Reed, Patrick
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spieth, JordanReed, Patrick
+105
Best Odds
+5.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Reed, Patrick
104111118
Spieth, Jordan
808794
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Reed, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+0.97/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.507 SG adj
Expected Finish
111th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Reed, Patrick
+0.97 SG
EF 111th
Skill Gap
+0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95 SG
EF 87th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
51.6%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+5.8%
Reed, Patrick vs Spieth, Jordan: Model gives Reed, Patrick 51.6% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+5.8% edge). Expected finish: 111.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Reed, Patrick 51.6%
+5.8 pts
Spread
+0.0
+5.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →