Reed, Patrick vs Spieth, Jordan prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spieth, Jordan 87 - Reed, Patrick 97. Reed, Patrick is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The spread is 0.03.
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Reed, Patrick
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spieth, JordanReed, Patrick
+108
Best Odds
+11.4%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Reed, Patrick
9097104
Spieth, Jordan
808794
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Reed, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+0.97/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.093 SG adj
Expected Finish
97th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Reed, Patrick
+0.97 SG
EF 97th
Skill Gap
+0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95 SG
EF 87th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.5%
Books Say
48.1%
Edge
+11.4%
Reed, Patrick vs Spieth, Jordan: Model gives Reed, Patrick 53.5% win probability vs 48.1% implied (+11.4% edge). Expected finish: 97.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Reed, Patrick 53.5%
+11.4 pts
Spread
+0.0
+11.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →