Rose, Justin vs Bradley, Keegan prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bradley, Keegan 65 - Rose, Justin 38. Rose, Justin is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The spread is 0.03.
Bradley, Keegan
+0.95
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Rose, Justin
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Bradley, KeeganRose, Justin
-115
Best Odds
+10.0%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rose, Justin
313845
Bradley, Keegan
586572
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Rose, Justin
Strokes Gained
+0.97/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+1.998 SG adj
Expected Finish
38th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Rose, Justin
+0.97 SG
EF 38th
Skill Gap
+0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Bradley, Keegan
+0.95 SG
EF 65th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.8%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+10.0%
Rose, Justin vs Bradley, Keegan: Model gives Rose, Justin 58.8% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+10.0% edge). Expected finish: 38.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rose, Justin 58.8%
+10.0 pts
Spread
+0.0
+10.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →