Rose, Justin vs MacIntyre, Robert prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MacIntyre, Robert 63 - Rose, Justin 63. MacIntyre, Robert is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The spread is -0.31.
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Rose, Justin
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
MacIntyre, RobertRose, Justin
+134
Best Odds
+5.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rose, Justin
566370
MacIntyre, Robert
566370
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Rose, Justin
Strokes Gained
+0.97/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+1.055 SG adj
Expected Finish
63th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Rose, Justin
+0.97 SG
EF 63th
Skill Gap
-0.31 SG/round
tight edge for MacIntyre, Robert
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29 SG
EF 63th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
45.2%
Books Say
42.7%
Edge
+5.8%
Rose, Justin vs MacIntyre, Robert: Model gives Rose, Justin 45.2% win probability vs 42.7% implied (+5.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.31 SG/round. Expected finish: 63.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MacIntyre, Robert 54.8%
+5.8 pts
Spread
-0.3
+5.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →