Schaper, Jayden vs Kim, Michael prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kim, Michael 111 - Schaper, Jayden 106. Schaper, Jayden is favored with a 62.5% win probability. The spread is 0.14.
Kim, Michael
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schaper, Jayden
+0.67
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kim, MichaelSchaper, Jayden
+101
Best Odds
+25.7%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schaper, Jayden
99106113
Kim, Michael
104111118
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schaper, Jayden
Strokes Gained
+0.67/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.111 SG adj
Expected Finish
106th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schaper, Jayden
+0.67 SG
EF 106th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Schaper, Jayden
Kim, Michael
+0.54 SG
EF 111th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.5%
Books Say
49.8%
Edge
+25.7%
Schaper, Jayden vs Kim, Michael: Model gives Schaper, Jayden 62.5% win probability vs 49.8% implied (+25.7% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 106.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schaper, Jayden 62.5%
+25.7 pts
Spread
+0.1
+25.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →