Schauffele, Xander vs Aberg, Ludvig prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aberg, Ludvig 60 - Schauffele, Xander 36. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 60.2% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.76
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Aberg, LudvigSchauffele, Xander
-124
Best Odds
+8.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schauffele, Xander
293643
Aberg, Ludvig
536067
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.66/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+1.382 SG adj
Expected Finish
36th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66 SG
EF 36th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
tight edge for Aberg, Ludvig
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.76 SG
EF 60th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.2%
Books Say
55.4%
Edge
+8.7%
Schauffele, Xander vs Aberg, Ludvig: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 60.1% win probability vs 55.4% implied (+8.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.10 SG/round. Expected finish: 36.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 60.2%
+8.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+8.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →