Schauffele, Xander vs Aberg, Ludvig prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aberg, Ludvig 61 - Schauffele, Xander 35. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 60.3% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.76
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Aberg, LudvigSchauffele, Xander
-124
Best Odds
+9.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schauffele, Xander
283542
Aberg, Ludvig
546168
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.66/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+1.382 SG adj
Expected Finish
35th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66 SG
EF 35th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
tight edge for Aberg, Ludvig
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.76 SG
EF 61th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.3%
Books Say
55.4%
Edge
+9.0%
Schauffele, Xander vs Aberg, Ludvig: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 60.3% win probability vs 55.4% implied (+9.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.10 SG/round. Expected finish: 35.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 60.3%
+9.0 pts
Spread
-0.1
+9.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →