Schauffele, Xander vs Cantlay, Patrick prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cantlay, Patrick 79 - Schauffele, Xander 35. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 70.7% win probability. The spread is 0.17.
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cantlay, PatrickSchauffele, Xander
-175
Best Odds
+11.1%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schauffele, Xander
283542
Cantlay, Patrick
727986
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.66/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+1.382 SG adj
Expected Finish
35th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66 SG
EF 35th
Skill Gap
+0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Schauffele, Xander
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50 SG
EF 79th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
70.7%
Books Say
63.6%
Edge
+11.1%
Schauffele, Xander vs Cantlay, Patrick: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 70.7% win probability vs 63.6% implied (+11.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.17 SG/round. Expected finish: 35.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 70.7%
+11.1 pts
Spread
+0.2
+11.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →