Schauffele, Xander vs DeChambeau, Bryson prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DeChambeau, Bryson 61 - Schauffele, Xander 36. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 64.3% win probability. The spread is 0.35.
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
DeChambeau, BrysonSchauffele, Xander
-140
Best Odds
+10.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schauffele, Xander
293643
DeChambeau, Bryson
546168
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.66/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+1.382 SG adj
Expected Finish
36th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66 SG
EF 36th
Skill Gap
+0.35 SG/round
tight edge for Schauffele, Xander
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.32 SG
EF 61th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
64.3%
Books Say
58.3%
Edge
+10.2%
Schauffele, Xander vs DeChambeau, Bryson: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 64.3% win probability vs 58.3% implied (+10.2% edge). Skill advantage: +0.35 SG/round. Expected finish: 36.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 64.3%
+10.2 pts
Spread
+0.3
+10.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →