Schauffele, Xander vs Fleetwood, Tommy prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fleetwood, Tommy 63 - Schauffele, Xander 19. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 73.1% win probability.
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fleetwood, TommySchauffele, Xander
-145
Best Odds
+23.5%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schauffele, Xander
121926
Fleetwood, Tommy
566370
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.66/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+2.199 SG adj
Expected Finish
19th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66 SG
EF 19th
Skill Gap
-0.00 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66 SG
EF 63th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
73.1%
Books Say
59.2%
Edge
+23.5%
Schauffele, Xander vs Fleetwood, Tommy: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 73.1% win probability vs 59.2% implied (+23.5% edge). Expected finish: 19.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 73.1%
+23.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →