Schauffele, Xander vs Fleetwood, Tommy prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fleetwood, Tommy 66 - Schauffele, Xander 35. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 67.1% win probability.
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fleetwood, TommySchauffele, Xander
-145
Best Odds
+13.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schauffele, Xander
283542
Fleetwood, Tommy
596673
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.66/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+1.382 SG adj
Expected Finish
35th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66 SG
EF 35th
Skill Gap
-0.00 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66 SG
EF 66th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
67.1%
Books Say
59.2%
Edge
+13.3%
Schauffele, Xander vs Fleetwood, Tommy: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 67.1% win probability vs 59.2% implied (+13.3% edge). Expected finish: 35.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 67.1%
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →