Schauffele, Xander vs Rahm, Jon prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rahm, Jon 50 - Schauffele, Xander 35. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 56.7% win probability. The spread is -0.44.
Rahm, Jon
+2.10
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rahm, JonSchauffele, Xander
+115
Best Odds
+22.0%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Schauffele, Xander
283542
Rahm, Jon
435057
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.66/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+1.382 SG adj
Expected Finish
35th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.66 SG
EF 35th
Skill Gap
-0.44 SG/round
meaningful edge for Rahm, Jon
Rahm, Jon
+2.10 SG
EF 50th · Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.7%
Books Say
46.5%
Edge
+22.0%
Schauffele, Xander vs Rahm, Jon: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 56.7% win probability vs 46.5% implied (+22.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.44 SG/round. Expected finish: 35.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 56.7%
+22.0 pts
Spread
-0.4
+22.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →