Schauffele, Xander vs Rahm, Jon prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rahm, Jon 0 - Schauffele, Xander 50. Schauffele, Xander is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The spread is -0.37.
Rahm, Jon
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Schauffele, Xander
+1.72
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rahm, JonSchauffele, Xander
+108
Best Odds
+12.3%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Schauffele, Xander
Strokes Gained
+1.72/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+0.546 SG adj
Expected Finish
50th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Schauffele, Xander
+1.72 SG
EF 50th
Skill Gap
-0.37 SG/round
tight edge for Rahm, Jon
Rahm, Jon
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.0%
Books Say
48.1%
Edge
+12.3%
Schauffele, Xander vs Rahm, Jon: Model gives Schauffele, Xander 53.0% win probability vs 48.1% implied (+10.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.37 SG/round. Expected finish: 50. AI: course specialist.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Schauffele, Xander 53.0%
+12.3 pts
Spread
-0.4
+12.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →