Scott, Adam vs Rose, Justin prediction for June 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rose, Justin 67 - Scott, Adam 37. Scott, Adam is favored with a 55.5% win probability.
Rose, Justin
+1.26
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Scott, Adam
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rose, JustinScott, Adam
+100
Best Odds
+13.0%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Scott, Adam
303744
Rose, Justin
606774
Tournament Context
Event
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Course
Muirfield Village GC
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Scott, Adam
Strokes Gained
+1.13/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.049 SG adj
Expected Finish
37th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Scott, Adam
+1.13 SG
EF 37th
Skill Gap
+0.00 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Rose, Justin
+1.26 SG
EF 67th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.5%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+13.0%
Scott, Adam vs Rose, Justin: Model gives Scott, Adam 55.5% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+11.0% edge). Expected finish: 37. AI: course specialist.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=10000)
Scott's +0.159 course fit advantage (0.049 vs -0.11) at Muirfield combined with near-identical skill (1.13 vs 1.12 SG) creates legitimate +3.2% edge; market moderately undervalues course specialist positioning.
Key Factors
- Course fit differential: +0.049 vs -0.11 = +0.159 SG advantage (real, structural)
- Skill differential: 1.13 vs 1.12 SG = essentially identical (0.01 noise)
- Model probability 55.6% vs market 52.4% = +3.2% edge (moderate)
- Expected finish gap: 1.9 strokes consistent with course fit advantage
Risk Factors
- Small probability edge (+3.2%) means higher variance outcomes likely
- Scott's recent form may not match historical course fit profile
- Rose's -0.11 course fit could be overstated if he's hitting form this season
COURSE FIT ADVANTAGESPECIALIST PLAYLEAN ASSET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Scott, Adam 55.5%
+13.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →