Smalley, Alex vs Noren, Alex prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Noren, Alex 80 - Smalley, Alex 93. Smalley, Alex is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The spread is -0.18.
Noren, Alex
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Smalley, Alex
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Noren, AlexSmalley, Alex
+105
Best Odds
+5.4%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smalley, Alex
8693100
Noren, Alex
738087
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Smalley, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.94/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.070 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Smalley, Alex
+0.94 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.18 SG/round
tight edge for Noren, Alex
Noren, Alex
+1.13 SG
EF 80th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
51.4%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+5.4%
Smalley, Alex vs Noren, Alex: Model gives Smalley, Alex 51.4% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+5.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 93.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smalley, Alex 51.4%
+5.4 pts
Spread
-0.2
+5.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →