Smalley, Alex vs Straka, Sepp prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Straka, Sepp 94 - Smalley, Alex 93. Smalley, Alex is favored with a 57.6% win probability.
Straka, Sepp
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Smalley, Alex
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Straka, SeppSmalley, Alex
-106
Best Odds
+12.0%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smalley, Alex
8693100
Straka, Sepp
8794101
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Smalley, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.94/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.070 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Smalley, Alex
+0.94 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.00 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Straka, Sepp
+0.94 SG
EF 94th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.6%
Books Say
51.5%
Edge
+12.0%
Smalley, Alex vs Straka, Sepp: Model gives Smalley, Alex 57.6% win probability vs 51.5% implied (+12.0% edge). Expected finish: 93.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smalley, Alex 57.6%
+12.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →