Smalley, Alex vs Woodland, Gary prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Woodland, Gary 40 - Smalley, Alex 33. Smalley, Alex is favored with a 56.4% win probability. The spread is 0.21.
Woodland, Gary
+0.68
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Smalley, Alex
+0.89
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Woodland, GarySmalley, Alex
-114
Best Odds
+5.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smalley, Alex
263340
Woodland, Gary
334047
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Smalley, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.89/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.216 SG adj
Expected Finish
33th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Smalley, Alex
+0.89 SG
EF 33th
Skill Gap
+0.21 SG/round
tight edge for Smalley, Alex
Woodland, Gary
+0.68 SG
EF 40th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.4%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+5.9%
Smalley, Alex vs Woodland, Gary: Model gives Smalley, Alex 56.4% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+5.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.21 SG/round. Expected finish: 33.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smalley, Alex 56.4%
+5.9 pts
Spread
+0.2
+5.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →